# 🏴‍☠️

*notes while watching* [*potctcotbp*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirates_of_the_Caribbean:_The_Curse_of_the_Black_Pearl)

> how often are the sub and the moon the same apparent size, viewed from earth? I think the question I’m getting at is something like what percentage of the time is one within uhh 10% of the other’s size
>
> > \[...]
> >
> > ### Bottom line
> >
> > * **Strictly**: There are rare occasions (a day or two per year at most) when the Sun and Moon differ by *just over* 10%.
> > * **Practically**: **Well over 90%** of the time they are within 10% of each other’s apparent size; some estimates put it closer to 95–98%.
> >
> > So if your question is “What fraction of the time do we see the Moon and Sun within 10% of each other’s apparent diameter?” an excellent short answer is:
> >
> > **“Almost all the time—easily above 90%, probably around 95–98%.”**

10% of the time, we are 10% off. Loosely. The [tithe](https://www.isaacbowen.com/2020/06/29/tithe) is more like *guidelines*. I swear, [decimation is part of the play](https://www.isaacbowen.com/ideas/10-revolt), and we gotta write choreography that *leverages* that, keeps it moving, keeps it shared

also I note that Jack Sparrow's compass [doesn't point north](https://www.isaacbowen.com/ideas/desire-is-radar)

"It's not possible." ["Not *probable*!"](https://www.isaacbowen.com/2024/12/15)

gotta do something that's [more interesting](https://www.isaacbowen.com/2025/01/13) than everything blowing up. unless you *want* everything to blow up, I mean.

honestly, this movie is a 200-level course in technical [probability-bending](https://www.isaacbowen.com/2023/05/lightward-is-officially-trademarked)